I never thought that my good score in mathematics (shameless self-promotion: I scored 100% marks in 10th grade exams) would come handy after almost 19 years when I will start searching for a nursery school for my kid. What else you can expect from a harried engineer parent? 
This “brain twisting” analysis idea came into my mind when I started analyzing chances/probability of my kid making to ‘any’ possible second, third of final list of any school in Delhi.
Hope you understand that the numbers used for this analysis are only indicative and doesn’t reflect any real data. I hope this would lit some ‘hope’ in everyone’s heart – yes there is still some hope. Keep smiling!
Hope you understand that the numbers used for this analysis are only indicative and doesn’t reflect any real data. I hope this would lit some ‘hope’ in everyone’s heart – yes there is still some hope. Keep smiling!
Let’s do some basic maths now:
Inputs:
100 - Schools taking admissions for 2008-2009 year in Delhi………...…..… (a)
3000 - Seats for 2008-2009 year (across all schools in Delhi)…………....… (b)
4000 – Applicants for 2008-2009 year (across Delhi)…………………………. (c)
Avg. no. of applications per applicant: 10 (data taken from poll results)
Total applications: 4000 x 10= 40000
Output:
Seats short (c - b): 1000
% of applicants appearing on more than one list: 10% = 4000 (c) x 10%= 400 …….....…….. (d)
Avg. no of lists one kid is appearing: 4
Total seats blocked by these applicants (d x 4): 400 x 4 = 1600 seats……………….…...……... (e)
These kids would free seats (e - d): 1600 – 400 = 1200 seats………………………………………. (f)
Avg. no of available seats per school (f/a): 1200/100 = 12……………………………………………. (g)
Average highest points (based on observations so far): 75 …………………………………...……… (h)
Average cut-off points (based on observations so far): 50 ………………………………….………… (i)
Average points per seat ((h - i)/(b/a)): (75-50)/30 = 25/30= approx. 0.75………..………….. (j)
Expected drop in points (g x j): 12 x 0.75 = approx. 10
Next expected cut-off: 50 – 10 = 40
If you think, you could not understand my point here, then here is the conclusion of this math :)
If you look at the final result of this calculation, the expected drop in cut-off is touching 40, and I am sure it would even drop to 30 which means that many of us would make to the list at one or other school after 1st Feb, 2008. I wish I could put actual numbers in this calculation, the output would have been really really interesting. What you say?
I wish I were right here with this calculation ‘cum’ prediction and see ‘many-many’ happy parents at schools gates in the month of February.
Cheers!
Inputs:
100 - Schools taking admissions for 2008-2009 year in Delhi………...…..… (a)
3000 - Seats for 2008-2009 year (across all schools in Delhi)…………....… (b)
4000 – Applicants for 2008-2009 year (across Delhi)…………………………. (c)
Avg. no. of applications per applicant: 10 (data taken from poll results)
Total applications: 4000 x 10= 40000
Output:
Seats short (c - b): 1000
% of applicants appearing on more than one list: 10% = 4000 (c) x 10%= 400 …….....…….. (d)
Avg. no of lists one kid is appearing: 4
Total seats blocked by these applicants (d x 4): 400 x 4 = 1600 seats……………….…...……... (e)
These kids would free seats (e - d): 1600 – 400 = 1200 seats………………………………………. (f)
Avg. no of available seats per school (f/a): 1200/100 = 12……………………………………………. (g)
Average highest points (based on observations so far): 75 …………………………………...……… (h)
Average cut-off points (based on observations so far): 50 ………………………………….………… (i)
Average points per seat ((h - i)/(b/a)): (75-50)/30 = 25/30= approx. 0.75………..………….. (j)
Expected drop in points (g x j): 12 x 0.75 = approx. 10
Next expected cut-off: 50 – 10 = 40
If you think, you could not understand my point here, then here is the conclusion of this math :)
If you look at the final result of this calculation, the expected drop in cut-off is touching 40, and I am sure it would even drop to 30 which means that many of us would make to the list at one or other school after 1st Feb, 2008. I wish I could put actual numbers in this calculation, the output would have been really really interesting. What you say?
I wish I were right here with this calculation ‘cum’ prediction and see ‘many-many’ happy parents at schools gates in the month of February.
Cheers!
18 comments:
I was counting on a similar situation where after the first list, some lucky applicants will have to make a choice and take admission in one school, thereby freeing some seats in others. But after hearing that people are already getting confirmed admissions after paying their way through godknowswhom, I am growing more and more depressed...
we have filled in for atleast 10 schools nearby, staying in IIT. the only point my daughter has is for the neighbourhood...so i really dont see her getting into any of these schools..this is the most depressing phase of one's life.
Three grand essentials to happiness in this life are something to do, something to love, and something to hope for...
we are doing our bit for our kids, we love them the most, and we really ave to keep hope alive. Things are tough out there but the battle is not lost.....
Wish everyone the best on 1st Feb and beyond till you board your child the school bus on 'the big' day in Apr! Keep smiling :)
Dear Spyder. I agree with you that we should keep our hopes alive but that is sounding a little difficult. I am a mother of 4+ old son (no sibling, alumni, transfer etc.). We have also applied in 14 schools but no success so far. Since many schools dont have vacancy in pre-primary, I have applied for pre-school but I am not sure whether they will consider him for pre-school. Totally confused and worried.
My compliments to you for creating such a good forum where all of us can share our concerns.
Need help. Can anyone suggest me how is DAV, Vasant Kunj???
DAV VK is avg. DAV school. Not very modern school though. The stuff (activity room, toys, playway things) they provide is average.
overall I would rate this school 5.5/10
Thank you so much for this info. on DAV.
Please advise me how is Banyan Tree, Lodhi Road and Chinmaya Vidyalaya, Vasant Vihar. Looking forward to your suggestions.
Here is my rating:
Banyan Tree, Lodhi Road: 6.5/10
Chinmaya Vidyalaya, Vasant Vihar:7.5/10
Both the schools are good, Chinmaya has better facilities and environment than banyan. Banyan facilities "at par" with good schools though. Depends what are you looking at and what r ur priorities. But looking at current scenario, banyan can be a good option too.
Same here - i.e. I am a father of 4+ old son (no sibling, alumni, transfer etc.), but i hope i would make it to the second, third list or last but not the least, schools will deffinately have those 'mgmt' quota seats for those who are willing to 'donate'....they will find you....hmmmm
Dear DOE to...... Even I am optimistic that I will find a place in second, third or last list. Lets PRAY together for our precious jewels ... but I am not going to give my hard earned money to these schools as 'donation' reason being that donation should not form the basis of my child's education. We believe in hardwork, honesty and GOD. If my child is good and we are sincere parents, I am sure he will do well even in 'not so good' schools. I am curious to know you are applying for pre-school or pre-primary because many schools dont have any vacancy in Pre-primary and even if they join pre-primary how will they cope up? This is their first exposure to formal schooling and they will attend classes with kids who are there for last one year and also older to them.
To DOE. Thanks for the ratings (Banyan Tree and Chinmaya Vidyalaya).
That sounds good..some good news after a long time.
Forgive me for bringing in the bad things again, still nothing is being done to improve the infrastructure. Number games are good but these very numbers would one day mean that tiny tots are deprived of admissions.
The question is what are we going to do?
I am not a paret yet and most probably wont be one for a long time to come..but still what i am worried about is that this campaign would lose momntum post the final admissions.
ARE WE REALLY DOING SOMETHING TO HELP THE KIDS AND SECURE THE NATION'S FUTURE?P
I just hope that each child, our baby, our life gets addmitted. I can't cry every day after cuming from the office and then goes the same story..... of hoping and praying. All the very best to all the parents.
Kindly give the review/rating for Manav Bharati India International school in Panchsheel Park.
Please also give the review/rating for Bloom Public School in Vasant Kunj.
I am not the best judge for the scools but as far as I know them, I would rate Manav Bharati - 6.5/10, Bloom Public School, Vasant Kunj - 6/10
I think we all need to understand that no school is going to give 100% to ur kid, but just 40% of what you expect. 60% is what you would be working with kid, so observe the school by extra-curr. activities, past performance etc than fee, building, website...and so on
all the best
Hello All
I am closly watching all the comments given by parents on the blog. Just to update you about some schools in West Delhi
1. St Francis
-Criteria: people who are Cristians/Catholic will get STRAIGT Forward 50 points out of 100. Rest for distance/ Alumni (That too for people belonging to Student union or Alumni Forums)/Sibling etc.
- If you are lucky enough to get in list, they would ask you to sponser 3-4 Minority kids (belong to christian community)Cost for each sponsership- 15k
- ....are we creating our society with these kind of thoughts(which are creating communal differences) from the people (priciple/teachers)who are responsible to build our society???
-I am not able to understand what the hell decision had been given by court. Why they were fighting from last couple of years for criteria...schools are making their own criteria.
-You may think that what happened to my kid's application...?
well, the moment I saw the change in point system of this school ( 50# for Catholic after 25th Nov decision), I just BACKED OFF. This is not the right school
2. Venkateshwar, Dwarka: They are not considering kids who are 3 years+ 2 to 4 months, giving admission to kids who are 3.6 months and above.
LOGIC: Kids who are less than 3.6 months would not be able to catch their teaching in comparison with 3.6+ months kids.
RESULT: Kids who are 3+ but less than 3.6Months would not get admission (despite of court order 3+ child will get admission this year) and if the same category kids would apply next year in same school, then the same school would say, your kid is 4+ so, we cant give admission in 3+ category.
Think over it
3. There are people who are making fake documents like rent deeds to get distance marks/ Minority points etc...so people who are genuine/educated and having valid points would keep on awaiting their Kids name in admission list.
And another important information...management Quota seats are on SALE/BID in schools like DPS Dwarka/Springdales/Bal Bharti etc. so people who are expecting a honest shortlisting of their kids may lose after 1st Feb.
So..Wish everyone the best on 1st Feb and beyond...
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